Recently, various political commentators have speculated that U.S. President Donald Trump’s unprecedented tariff policy could have greater negative political repercussions than anything else so far in his second term. Prior to Trump issuing a 90-day pause on tariffs, multiple Republican senators broke ranks and implied that his recent policies could end up seriously costing the Republican Party the 2026 midterm elections. In an article in The Wall Street Journal published last week, longtime Republican strategist and George W. Bush administration advisor Karl Rove predicted that Republican voters would penalize Trump for adopting the tariffs and accused him of breaking a cardinal rule: insisting poor economic policy was fine. Rove suggested that Trump would see defections from his base if the tariffs took effect.
“If trading partners retaliate with tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and take their business elsewhere, farm country — Trump country — won’t be happy,” the article reads.
I do not buy the idea that the negative fallout of Trump’s tariff policy will lead to a significant percentage of Republicans abandoning the party. Frankly, I believe that the vast majority of Trump supporters will continue to support tariffs unless the policy directly triggers a recession, and I am not holding my breath. Secondly, I believe that Republicans will argue that Americans should evaluate the success of the tariff strategy not based on whether manufacturing jobs will return to America, which will likely not happen, but whether the economy enters a recession. Moreover, this strategy may just work because Democrats in the Trump era oftentimes place themselves at a competitive disadvantage by assuming that politics is a matter of responding to fixed political opinion. But by assuming that the public will naturally support them once they become more informed, Democrats take a backseat to Trump and Republicans who actively work to shape public opinion to support their policy.
Democrats do not need to wait for a recession or a major spike in inflation to happen in order to convince Americans that Trump’s economic policies are disastrous. Yet, even as the majority of Americans generally do not support tariffs, most are waiting to see what will happen. In other words, Democrats need to change minds, and that does not happen by presenting a set of ostensibly neutral, indisputable facts. Rather, they can change minds by telling a gripping, believable story — Trump is indifferent to regular Americans, and he is willing to throw Americans under the bus in order to make millions through stock market manipulation. More importantly, Democrats should focus on emphasizing to the public that Trump’s economic policies are harming regular Americans by raising prices and preventing the resurgence of the manufacturing industry.
Furthermore, Democrats and political commentators who believe that Trump’s tariff policies will cause his base to naturally turn against him tend to overestimate people’s willingness to change their minds when presented with factual information. A phrase widely attributed to Rove perfectly skewered this tendency of political commentators: the reality-based community. An unnamed official in Bush’s administration used this phrase to explain to journalist Ron Suskind why the Bush administration was not concerned with the negative press coverage of the war in Iraq.
“[Guys like me were] in what we call the reality-based community … [people who] believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality,” Suskind’s source says. “That’s not the way the world really works anymore. We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out.”
While the Bush administration regularly embraced post-truth politics, this quote cuts to the heart of the Trump administration: reality is malleable, and he can persuade Republicans to accept policies that will undeniably make their lives worse. But as arrogant as he is here, Rove is right to assume that democratic politics is fluid and flexible. In other words, Rove — and Trump to some degree — correctly understand that political actors must create a public that is receptive to their reality through compelling narratives. The Democrats, on the other hand, assume that the public will come over to their side once they become properly informed. That being said, Democrats should not try to convince the public that a thriving economy is terrible. Rather, they should pull out all stops to persuade the public that Trump’s economic policies are leaving them worse off.
Even before the Trump administration slashed multiple Biden-implemented federal subsidies and programs designed to restore manufacturing, it was a safe bet to assume that a manufacturing resurgence would not occur anytime soon. But Democrats cannot convince Rust Belt Republicans to vote for them merely by pointing out that Trump policies failed to bring back manufacturing jobs; voters did not punish Trump for failing to accomplish this task during his first term. Instead, Democrats should emphasize how Trump’s economic policies prevent the resurgence of the manufacturing industry and make life more expensive for regular Americans. Democrats need to emphasize these points in a visceral way, such as pointing out that the Trump administration cancelled a jobs program in JD Vance’s hometown of Middletown, or constantly emphasizing a “Trump tax” on goods. By making large, emotional appeals, Democrats can convey the harmfulness of Trump’s economic policies and shape public opinion. Moreover, Democrats should argue that it is not necessary for Americans to suffer by paying higher prices in order to create manufacturing jobs.
Furthermore, Rove is wrong that farm counties will naturally turn against Trump in response to higher prices caused by tariffs. Researchers found that farmers negatively impacted by import tariffs during Trump’s 2018 trade war with China were actually more likely to vote for Trump in 2020. For context, Trump’s 2018 import tariffs were found to have little effect on employment, but Chinese counter-tariffs raised costs in the American agricultural industry. Yet, the researchers found that the farmers in areas negatively affected by the counter-tariffs actually rewarded Trump and the Republican Party for taking action against China. Moreover, the study indicates that the workers understood the tariffs did not benefit them yet still voted for Trump. Assuming that the public will vote for Democrats if they are more informed, therefore, is not an effective strategy in and of itself.
On the other hand, it is much more difficult for politicians to shape public opinion about the economy as compared to other issues. Rove is right to claim in his article that presidents will be penalized if they force Americans to accept unpopular economic policies. Despite partisanship playing a larger role in how Americans react to the economy, Trump has already experienced a decline in his approval ratings since implementing his tariffs last week. Still, the political failure of Bidenomics illustrates why Democrats need to work on utilizing narratives to shape public opinion rather than hoping that the public will take their side once they become informed. While the program poured resources into red states and created thousands of jobs, Trump focused on persuading Rust Belt voters that he was the only person that could actually restore the manufacturing industry. We all know what the end result was. Overall, Democrats could stand to benefit by taking a more proactive approach in shaping public opinion about Trump’s tariff policies rather than waiting for economic turmoil to naturally produce public backlash.
