The Milwaukee Bucks have had a disappointing season. From a sportsbook perspective, their over/under was 43.5 wins at the beginning of the season. They are currently 23–30, on pace to be well under. Giannis Antetokounmpo, their star player out of Greece, has been sidelined with an injury for a large part of the season. The general disappointment of the season has led to speculation that Antetokounmpo, the 2018 and 2019 MVP and 2021 NBA Champion, may be traded.
The speculation was warranted. Numerous verified sources confirmed that the Bucks were actively shopping Giannis to other teams. NBA writers even confirmed that the pursuit of a trade was coming at the approval of Antetokounmpo himself.
“Giannis Antetokounmpo is ready for a new home,” premier NBA writer and insider Shams Charania wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Public perception that Antetokounmpo would be traded reached such a high that $23 million were traded on Kalshi on whether or not he would remain on the team.
What is Kalshi? Well, legally, Kalshi is not a sportsbook, but a “prediction market.”
It is a website that allows users to put money on yes-or-no predictions such as, “Will Giannis get traded?”, “Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet get married?”, and “Will the U.S. invade Iran?”
Because of the unique nature of this site, it doesn’t fall under the same federal guidelines that typical sportsbooks do. It is largely unregulated. Certain states, particularly Massachusetts, have attempted to restrict sites like Kalshi, but as of now it remains legal across the U.S. Because of the lack of regulation, the website is filled with eyebrow-raising activity that some people interpret to be insider trading.
For example, prior to Super Bowl 60, a rumor circulated among college campuses that actor Mark Wahlberg would be at the game. On Kalshi, almost $24 million was bet that this would occur. It didn’t. How or why this rumor came about is unknown, but it resulted in millions of dollars being spent on Kalshi.
In short, Kalshi is a legal site, but the lack of regulation opens the door for questionable bets and a general mistrust in its integrity.
This brings things back to Antetokounmpo. On Feb. 5, after weeks of speculation that he would be traded, Antetokounmpo gave an answer to fans that had wagered $23 million on what would happen. On his X account, Antetokounmpo posted a clip from the movie The Wolf of Wall Street, where Leonardo DiCaprio’s character triumphantly proclaims he is not leaving. Antetokounmpo decided to stay in Milwaukee.
The following day, he made another post on X.
“Everyone is online,” the post read. “The internet is full of opinions. I decided it was time to make some of my own. Today, I’m joining Kalshi as a shareholder. We all on Kalshi now.”
Antetokounmpo faced immediate backlash. It doesn’t take a genius to see the conflict of interest between an athlete being a co-owner of a market that allows people to wager money on that specific athlete, especially in a situation where there were large amounts of money on whether or not said athlete would be traded.
The timing for Antetokounmpo could not have been worse. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver noted that the Milwaukee power forward’s ownership stake is “much smaller than 1 percent,” but Kalshi is an $11 billion dollar company. Additionally, NBA rules prohibit him from wagering on anything basketball-adjacent.
But regardless, this announcement only hurts the public trust in the NBA. Across professional leagues, the influence of betting is creeping into the product.
In the MLB, Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase faces a lifetime suspension and time in prison for allegedly rigging certain pitches in his outings. He was alledgedly doing so for multiple seasons. Earlier this year, the NBA was rocked by a major sports betting scandal. A story broke that Miami Heat player Terry Rozier removed himself from a game for the benefit of gamblers, sharing insider information.
All told, even if Antetokounmpo’s ownership of Kalshi is completely legitimate, faith in the NBA is at an all-time low. If fans believe the product on the court is not fully legitimate, the sport fails.
But right now, the NBA commissioner’s office and leadership show no sign of backing down from gambling partnerships. In the future, the role that sports gambling has may delegitimize the league completely.
