Abandonment of Ukraine Allows Conflict to Drag On
October 2, 2015
Mass media has covered little of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine over the past few months. Since the success of February’s Minsk-2 accords, large-scale fighting has abated in Eastern Ukraine. Nonetheless, violence continues. Small numbers of soldiers in both the Ukrainian and rebel armed forces are still dying. Minor firefights break out often, artillery fire is still exchanged — the conflict has not ended. The international community needs to refocus its attention on the civil war in Eastern Ukraine and come together to forge a peaceful resolution that takes into account both Russian and separatist interests. This is the only way the conflict will end.
Civil war erupted in Eastern Ukraine after an uprising during the spring of 2014. The region, known as the Donbass because it lies in the Donets Basin, is comprised of two industrial oblasts, or provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. In order to understand this conflict, it is important to realize that the Soviet Union only broke up 24 years ago, and before that, Russia and Ukraine had never been separate countries. The cross-border ethnic, linguistic, economic and cultural links still run deep. Ukraine has always had a large Russian-speaking population concentrated in the south and east of the country. Many of these Russian speakers are ethnically Russian, while others are Russian-speaking Ukrainians; these divisions are often very blurred, as one might consider themselves Ukrainian, speak only Russian on a daily basis and have both Russian and Ukrainian ancestry. Before the breakup of the USSR, these divisions had no significant importance; Russians and Ukrainians were “brother peoples.”
Things changed dramatically after the fall of the Soviet Union. Legally speaking, the USSR was succeeded by the Commonwealth of Independent States, a multinational organization that was originally conceived of as a confederation of sorts but only ever held symbolic power among the post-Soviet states. Different post-Soviet states had very different relationships with Russia. Some, like Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan, became and remain Russian satellites, which are integrated militarily, economically and politically with Russia. Others, like the Baltic States and Georgia, took opposite paths and sought alliances with the West. Then there was a category of states that drifted between the two poles, Ukraine being the most notable and, for our purposes, the most pertinent example. Closely tied to Russia politically and economically, Ukraine nevertheless expressed some desire for alliance with the West and for the creation of a Western-style liberal democracy.
The events of February 2014 were a turning point in the Ukraine-Russia relationship. At the time, Ukraine was being run by a pro-Russian regime headed by Viktor Yanukovych. In November 2013, he scrapped a strategy to make an Association Agreement with the EU. Instead, Yanukovych accepted a deal from Russia, under which Ukraine would join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in exchange for much more financial aid than the EU had offered, as well as less stringent regulations and reform requirements. This anti-EU swing sparked a protest movement in Kiev. The protests increased in size, intensity and violence in February 2014, when pro-EU protesters occupied Kiev’s main square, the Maidan, prompting pro-government forces to launch a violent crackdown against them. Unable to contain the protests or retake the city center, Yanukovych fled to Russia on Feb. 21. Ukraine’s legislative assembly, the Verkhovna Rada, stripped him of power in an unconstitutional vote, and a new, pro-Western government took power. This was the Maidan revolution of 2014, and its consequences shall cast a shadow over the world for a long time to come.
The events of February 2014 were a turning point in the Ukraine-Russia relationship. At the time, Ukraine was being run by a pro-Russian regime headed by Viktor Yanukovych. In November 2013, he scrapped a strategy to make an Association Agreement with the EU. Instead, Yanukovych accepted a deal from Russia, under which Ukraine would join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in exchange for much more financial aid than the EU had offered, as well as less stringent regulations and reform requirements. This anti-EU swing sparked a protest movement in Kiev. The protests increased in size, intensity and violence in February 2014, when pro-EU protesters occupied Kiev’s main square, the Maidan, prompting pro-government forces to launch a violent crackdown against them. Unable to contain the protests or retake the city center, Yanukovych fled to Russia on Feb. 21. Ukraine’s legislative assembly, the Verkhovna Rada, stripped him of power in an unconstitutional vote, and a new, pro-Western government took power. This was the Maidan revolution of 2014, and its consequences shall cast a shadow over the world for a long time to come.
Events quickly spiraled out of control following the Maidan. The new, pro-U.S. government was weak; it was composed of a broad coalition from student intellectuals to radical right-wing nationalists. Protests against the revolution broke out all over southern and eastern Ukraine, from Odessa to Kharkov. Paramilitaries, who were in fact Russian special forces, took control of Crimea. Crimea largely accepted these “polite green men” and seceded from Ukraine, declaring independence with Russian backing. Crimea was populated mostly by ethnic Russians and had only been part of Ukraine since 1954, when no one could have imagined the Soviet Union would fall apart or that Russia and Ukraine could be separate countries. In March, Crimea voted in a heavily disputed referendum to join Russia. It was the first time a power had seized land by force in Europe since 1945.
The Russian annexation of Crimea, condemned by the international community, also had major implications for Ukraine’s other Russian-speaking regions. These parts of Ukraine looked to Russia as a protector, a mindset bolstered by Russian propaganda that portrayed the new government in Kiev as fascist and bent on the destruction of Russia and Russian-speakers everywhere. Protests in other parts of Ukraine continued. In three major cities in Ukraine’s industrial east — Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkov — pro-Russian protesters took control of the main government administration buildings and declared “People’s Republics.” While Kharkov was retaken by the central government, rebellion spread across the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Ukrainian government then launched an anti-terror operation to retake the rebellious regions. However, the rebels, while not being officially recognized by Russia, received huge amounts of Russian financial and material support, as well as small forces of Russian troops — the “popular defense militias,” as they are known.
The war in the Donbass has had many twists and turns, but in the past eight months it has settled into a stalemate where the rebel republics control many of the region’s main population centers and the Russian border area; Kiev has retained or retaken significant parts of the area as well. This conflict cannot be overlooked. It lies at the nexus of nationalism, sovereignty, capitalism and communism — many of the great historical themes of the past century have converged in the Donbass. The world needs to turn its attention back to the conflict and bring about a peaceful resolution to the stalemate.