The state of Ohio is the paradigmatic bellwether state. Since 1896, citizens of Ohio have voted for the victor of presidential elections over 93 percent of the time and have the longest perfect streak of any state in the union. The media storm surrounding the outcome of Ohio’s Republican Primary on Tuesday can be accounted for largely because of this phenomenon. According to Assistant Professor of Politics Michael Parkin, Ohio’s ability to predict or influence the path of federal electoral politics is rooted in state particulars.

“Ohio has a large impact on federal elections because it has a lot of Electoral College votes and they are almost always up for grabs. As a swing state, presidential candidates devote resources to Ohio knowing that a victory in Ohio is possible and worth the effort.”

Though Mitt Romney claimed a win from Tuesday’s elections, Rick Santorum followed close behind, with Romney winning 37.9 percent of the vote and Santorum with 37.1. Since Ohio allocates its delegates proportionally, 35 delegates were given to Romney and 21 to Santorum.

Nick Miller, College junior and president of the Oberlin College Republicans and Libertarians, said that though Romney claims the victory in Ohio, he doesn’t think that this victory can necessarily be extended to the candidacy yet.

“We’ll see if Rick Santorum actually ends up catching up. He might; the race is not over yet. The math is heavily weighted to Romney, but like I said, with the proportional system it doesn’t take a whole lot. Close wins are what they are, both candidates got a lot of Ohio delegates,” Miller said.

Parkin agreed that Romney has work to do in order to secure the candidacy for the 2012 Presidential Election, and that Santorum is still in the running.

“I would have thought, given the field, that [Romney] would have wrapped this up a while ago. Now that it’s still a little uncertain, I’m not sure what will ultimately happen. It is possible, although pretty unlikely, that Romney will commit more gaffes while doing very poorly in the South. In other words, he could really lose momentum. At the same time, if Gingrich leaves the race soon and Santorum can sweep the South, I think we might see a tighter two-person race. Possibly a race that goes to the convention,” said Parkin.

Parkin said that a number of factors — its electoral delegates, partisan split and demographics — contribute to Ohio’s prominence in electoral politics, though a candidate’s performance in the state also reveals the strength or weakness of their campaign.

“Demographics help to explain why Ohio is a bellwether state, but it’s not just demographics. Ohio looks like the rest of the nation in total in terms of demographic breakdown — it is nearly a miniature version of the entire nation. However, Ohio is also a good predictor of final election returns because the candidates spend so much time here. Their performance then becomes the result of their overall campaign strategy. If a candidate campaigns effectively in Ohio, it is likely that they are appealing to many voters across the country, and vice versa,” Parkin said.

Miller explained Ohio’s presage of general elections as a result of the nature of its citizens.

“It’s kind of cute to have it all centered around Ohio, there’s a whole narrative. … ‘Whatever Ohio goes, the country goes.’ Well I don’t know about that but it’s a nice mix of Democrats and Republicans, mostly blue collar, mostly people who are pro-union, but against healthcare mandates. That sums up Ohio.”

Both Miller and Parkin characterized the primary as a period during which candidates and parties begin to streamline the platform and their strategies for the general election, yet it is also the opportunity for candidates to make very embarrassing and public mistakes.

“It is hard to characterize the Republican Party as having a strategy at this point. Naturally, parties are somewhat divided during a primary contest. Things will become more unified down the road. …Certainly, they’ve made some mistakes but primaries are known for creating at least a little havoc,” said Parkin.

Miller took a less optimistic view to the Republican’s performance thus far.

“I swear, have any of these guys actually read their speeches in the mirror? Because they cannot stay on message to save their butts. …The primary is like a practice for the general election, but they’re not practicing. This is gross. All the metaphors — dog and pony show, goat rodeo, circular firing range — it’s kind of amusing to watch, especially if you’re emotionally detached,” Miller said.

Though Miller made light of his disenchantment with the potential Republican presidential nominees, he said that he would be concerned by a victory for Obama.

“It’s so not fun to talk about this. Can you ask for a weaker field? If it was like ’96 or 2004 I wouldn’t care so much because the country was doing alright — or so we thought — but right now we have so many big [issues] that I really wish we had somebody. Another four years of trillion dollar deficits… I’m not excited about that.”